21 Bits Newsletter - July 2026

TL ; DR

• Fed turns hawkish under Warsh: June's FOMC held rates steady, but 9 of 18 officials now project a hike by year-end, effectively killing near-term rate-cut hopes.
• Bitcoin tests lower, recovers to $62K: after selling off on the hawkish read, BTC clawed back toward $62,000, with $65,000 now the level to watch on the upside.
• Stablecoin infrastructure gets a heavyweight entrant: Open USD launched with 140+ backers including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock, offering fee-free minting/redemption for business payments.
• Tokenisation push continues: Ondo Finance expanded to 430+ tokenized stocks/ETFs with 24/7 minting on Ethereum and BNB Chain, while BlackRock launched a Bitcoin covered-call income ETF (BITA).
• Regulation moves on two fronts: Oman mandated a national Bitcoin mining pool, and India's Parliamentary Finance Committee heard RBI/ICAI testimony as part of its ongoing VDA regulation study.

THOUGHTS

June marked the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and crypto markets have grown increasingly sensitive to the outcome. Rates were held steady, but the Committee's tone was hawkish: 9 of 18 officials now expect a hike by year-end, up from a projected cut as recently as March. The shift likely reflects a stronger-than-expected May jobs report and inflation that's stayed above target, leaving little room to justify easing.

So rate-cut hopes are effectively dead for now. Bitcoin and Ethereum  ETFs saw a combined $111M in outflows on June 17, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 23 which is extreme fear territory. Plenty of people are already writing the bear case.

But this looks more like a stress test than a verdict. Here's the data that complicates the bearish read:

1. Long-term holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in June, one of the largest accumulation months this cycle (source:CoinDesk)
2. Whale wallets (1,000+ BTC) climbed back to nearly 34% of total supply
3. Strategy added 1,587 BTC for $100M between June 8–14

Source: Strategy Inc. Form 8-K, SEC filing, June 15, 2026

These are wallets that demonstrate a different story than than the last 24 hours of price action. Their behaviour is a better read on conviction than ETF flow data. Short term ETF data is tied to rate expectations  and short-term positioning whereas long term holder behaviour is proof of conviction that doesn't reprice every time the dot plot moves. 

That divergence is itself the signal: two investor bases, two time horizons, two different reactions to the same news. What's changed this week is rate expectations and not bitcoin's supply, its holder base, or the structural case for owning it. Which is, as always, the argument for positioning around the fundamentals rather than the next 24 hours of headlines.

TOP STORIES

1. Open Standard Launches Open USD, Backed by 140+ Companies

A consortium of more than 140 companies, including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, BlackRock, American Express, and Solana, launched Open USD on June 30 through a new independent entity called Open Standard. The dollar-pegged stablecoin charges no fees to mint or redeem, carries no volume caps, and is built for high-volume business payments. It's expected to go live on Solana and other chains later this year.

2. Ondo Finance Adds 173 Tokenized Stocks and ETFs to Its Global

Ondo Finance added 173 new tokenized stocks and ETFs to Ondo Global Markets on June 17, taking the platform's total to more than 430 assets across Ethereum, Solana and BNB Chain. The latest batch covers sectors including AI, robotics, quantum and defense tech. Ondo also launched 24/7 minting and redemption for tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on Ethereum and BNB Chain on June 25, starting with six of its most-traded assets.

3. BlackRock Launches iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF

BlackRock launched the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF on June 16, trading under the ticker BITA on Nasdaq. The fund is designed to provide Bitcoin exposure while generating monthly option premium income through a covered call strategy, extending BlackRock's digital asset offering beyond spot exposure into a more structured, yield oriented product.

4. Oman Launches a Mandatory National Bitcoin Mining Pool

Oman has launched a mandatory national Bitcoin mining pool, Omanhash.om, requiring all licensed miners in the country to route their computing power through a single state-backed platform. The initiative, launched on June 17, is operated by Enegix Global with Omani blockchain firm Frontier Technologies, and marks the second sovereign mining pool of its kind after Kazakhstan.

5. India's Parliamentary Finance Committee to Hear RBI and ICAI on VDA Regulation

India's Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance heard oral evidence from RBI and ICAI on July 2, as part of its study, "A Study on Virtual Digital Assets (VDAs) and Way Forward." The sitting was held at Parliament House Annexe in New Delhi. This was the committee's eighth stakeholder consultation on the subject.

BITCOIN ANALYSIS

Bitcoin has recovered to roughly $62,000 after testing lower levels, with $65,000 now the immediate resistance to watch.

CRYPTO MARKET PERFORMANCE - JUNE 2026

PRODUCT PERFORMANCE- JUNE 2026

BLOOMBERG GALAXY CRYPTO INDEX (BGCI) - JULY 2026

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Nothing in this issue should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, crypto, or other asset. Markets are volatile, crypto assets in particular carry high risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research and consult a qualified, licensed advisor before making any investment decisions. The author may hold positions in the assets discussed.